Some thoughts about traffic

During our meeting with Morgan Property Group and Publix, the claim was made that the traffic report reflects a worst case scenario.  The claim was made that the traffic will probably be less than the 6000 trips a day predicted by the traffic report.  However, let’s think this through with some simple math.

Let’s assume that the parking lot proposed for Dunn and Falls with 350 spaces will, on average, be 50% full throughout the 16 hours that the store is open. Let’s also assume that the average time in the store is 30 minutes. Then we get the following:

350 x 0.5 x 16 x 2 = 5,600 cars per day

Now, every customer makes a trip into and a trip out of the store. Thus, we get 11,200 trips a day.

However, their traffic study claims that there will be 6000 trips a day. So, clearly, to get 6000 trips a day, the parking lot must be less than half full on average.

To get 6000 trips a day we would have to change our assumption from being 50% full on average to 26% full throughout the day

In other words, the parking lot will be 75% empty on average!

Is this a realistic assumption? What is your experience with the parking lots at Trader Joes or Whole Foods?  Could the traffic situation be far worse?  Here is the Publix in Cary:

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